Spot mix effects in averages

Prompt that checks whether an average changed because of real changes or only a shift between groups. Paste it into an AI tool of your choice, which then checks the average for mix effects.

Topic: Spreadsheets & data
Type: Prompt
Level: Advanced
Time: about 15 min

Results depend on the tool, the model and what you enter.

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FigureWhich average changed?

GroupsWhich groups could have shifted?

DataWhat do you have?

Your prompt

Check the following change in an average for mix effects.
Figure: [Figure]
Groups: [Groups]
Data: [Data]
Approach: 1. Restate the change: which average, which two periods, how big. 2. Split the figure by the named groups and show for each group its share and its own average in both periods. 3. Separate the change into the part that comes from shifted shares and the part that comes from changed group values. 4. Check whether the direction in the total differs from the direction in the groups. 5. Flag groups that are too small to draw conclusions. 6. Write two sentences that explain the result to people without a data background.
Output: table by group, split of the change, short explanation and open questions.

Take particular care to always split averages by group before explaining a change.

Before you answer, check: Are all instructions met? If key information is missing or a placeholder in square brackets is still in the text, ask instead of guessing. Mark assumptions as assumptions.

Check the following change in an average for mix effects.
Figure: [Figure]
Groups: [Groups]
Data: [Data]
Approach: 1. Restate the change: which average, which two periods, how big. 2. Split the figure by the named groups and show for each group its share and its own average in both periods. 3. Separate the change into the part that comes from shifted shares and the part that comes from changed group values. 4. Check whether the direction in the total differs from the direction in the groups. 5. Flag groups that are too small to draw conclusions. 6. Write two sentences that explain the result to people without a data background.
Output: table by group, split of the change, short explanation and open questions.

Take particular care to always split averages by group before explaining a change.

Before you answer, check: Are all instructions met? If key information is missing or a placeholder in square brackets is still in the text, ask instead of guessing. Mark assumptions as assumptions.

This is an instruction for an AI, not the result itself.

Where this prompt works

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How to use it

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Copy the finished prompt into an AI tool of your choice.
Add up share times group value for each period. The result must match the reported average; if not, a group is missing.

Why does this work?

An average can fall although every group got better, simply because a weaker group grew. Without the split by group, teams fix the wrong thing.

Tips

Use group totals or anonymised rows only, never personal data.

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Spot mix effects in averages

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